First Quarter 2024: Surprisingly stable values after months of decline.
As previously discussed we have been consistently witnessing deflating values of low value and end of life automobiles presented at wholesale. Based on our index observations, the trend was nosing us in the direction of pre-pandemic values. The surprising stability of the first three months of 2024 surprised us somewhat. So let’s take a look
Wholesale Used Automobile Performance
On the wholesale front, Q1 showed us a continued decrease in wholesale used vehicle values. This is most definitely a continuation of the slide started in 2022 off of record values. In Q1 of 2024, wholesale used-vehicle prices dropped from the end of last year. This was the first time the Manheim index reading has been under 200 since March 2021 See the Manheim index below:
ARS Low Value Vehicle Index
ARS maintains our own observational price index for vehicles at the lower end of the spectrum. We look at high mileage, high year, and end of life vehicles presented at wholesale and monitor the market performance. The data sample that drives our index is from many points of sale throughout the vehicle remarketing industry.
The performance generally has followed the downward trend of the used vehicle market but as our particular segment didn’t have the same dollar growth the trip down is a bit shorter for end of life vehicles. The market improved slightly in Q1 but is basically tracking very close to the pre pandemic levels.
Source: Advanced Remarketing Services*
Crushed Auto Bodies
Q1 crushed auto bodies have been relatively flat and only up 1.2% from April 2023. This surprising stability may be affected in the months to come by scrap appetites in the Middle East if political tensions continue to escalate..
Source: Advanced Remarketing Services
Aluminum
Keeping an eye on Aluminum performance, the trendlines seem to mirror the values of other metals, relatively flat recent performance and only down 3% YOY.
Platinum
The price for platinum is on an upward trend but has dropped to similar values seen at the start of the year.
Fuel Prices
Though technically not a metals value, fuel prices and transportation costs are impacting global demand and use of the still in demand commodities. Please remember that fuel prices are traditionally seasonally affected. At the end of Q1, the national average for gasoline was $3.42 exactly the same as a year ago at this time and down 30% from the historic highs of June 22..
Overall, it has been a remarkably stable start to 2024. This relative stability is something we haven’t seen in years. This stability makes it easier than ever to plan for the future. If your organization has a consistent volume of low value, high mileage and older vehicles, we should talk. Reach out to any of our team directly or email us at arsinfo@arscars.com